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Shock Drop! How The Sneaker Market Reacts
Was Our Bred 4 Prediction Right?
What’s up guys?! After the Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined’s surprise release (shock drop) on Tuesday, we were curious what impact shock drops have on prices. Read on for what we found PLUS an evaluation of how our algorithm did predicting Bred 4 prices last week.
Going to SneakerCon Philly on February 17th? See you there! 👟
Arbit Sneaker Market Index (ASMI)
Check out how the sneaker resell market has been performing over the last 30 days based on moving average sale price. 🧐
Arbit Sneaker Market Index (Last 30 Day Sales)
We Predicted a Price Drop—Were We Right?
Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined
As our algorithm predicted last week (74% probability), prices of the Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined (FV5029-006) have dropped. Prices have steadily fallen since the first pairs hit the secondary market in January and continue to decline as more supply becomes available.
Inverse Relationship Between Sale Count and Price of the Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined
Our algorithm’s latest 30-day price forecast gives the same 74% probability of a price decrease, meaning we haven’t yet reached the bottom. This makes sense with the official release (and many more available pairs) coming on February 17th. Jordan is rumored to be releasing 500,000 pairs. Fair prices now range from $300-$380, depending on size.
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Market Analysis: How The Market Reacts to A Shock Drop
We looked at sales data within 24 hours of the “surprise” early release of the Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined (FV5029-006). These teaser drops, which happen several days before the official release, are typical of Nike and Jordan for highly-anticipated pairs. We wanted to see how the market responds to the increase in buzz and supply and to the failure of some buyers to get one of these limited pairs.
Fluctuations in Average Sale Price around Shock Drop for Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined
In short, we saw no significant price movement within this short window, only more pairs being sold. We’ll be monitoring the sales activity between the February 6th shock drop and February 17th release. We will also continue to analyze the impact of shock drops with other highly-anticipated pairs.
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